Fitch: Brexit could lead to 'permanent damage' to financial sector

London particularly vulnerable

Jayna Rana
clock • 1 min read

Ratings agency Fitch has issued a series of warnings on the impact of a Brexit including the possibilities of house prices crashing by 25%, sterling falling by a third and interest rates rising to more than 3% by 2019.

In a report where it warned a messy exit could risk "permanent damage" to the UK's financial sector, it said there are several implications that need to be considered.

The ratings agency said lower economic growth and higher interest rates, as a result of a Brexit, could trigger a sharp fall in house prices, around 25%, in a recent report.

It added London would be "disproportionately affected by the loss of financial services business and high-wage jobs," making the capital more vulnerable to house price falls, according to The Telegraph.

It said: "Fitch estimates that UK house prices are currently up to 25% above 'sustainable' levels in relation to disposable income.

"This scenario could result in near-term price declines that result in house prices falling towards their sustainable level."

The report also said the pound would drop by 30% by the end of 2016, following the sharp falls already seen in the currency, pushing retail sector failures to levels "similar to those in 2008-2009".

Although large retailers could adjust to the weaker sterling by sourcing its goods from cheaper countries, Fitch said "failures could increase...due to their relative lack of bargaining power and extremely competitive trading conditions".

Carney: Brexit could lead to technical UK recession

Fitch added the Bank of England would have to increase interest rates to more than 3% by 2019 after a period of looser monetary policy to counteract a big fall in demand.

However, it also warned social tensions would grow even if Britain were to remain in the bloc, as it predicted net EU migration to remain high and "core discontent with the EU ultimately unresolved". 

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