India has been forecast to record the largest GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, with 6.4% each year, followed by the Philippines.
Global growth in 2026 is expected to stay level with 2025 at 3.3%, according to the International Monetary Forum today (19 January), slightly more than previously predicted.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, 2027 will witness slightly less global growth at 3.2%, no change from its previous forecast in October 2025.
This "steady performance" is a result of the "balancing of divergent forces", it said.
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"Global growth is expected to remain steady, with the momentum in high-tech sectors set to slow but to continue to partly offset the drag elsewhere. While tariffs and uncertainty are projected to continue to weigh on the level of activity, the effect on growth is expected to fade during 2026 and 2027," stated the report.
India has been forecast to record the largest GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, 6.4% each year, followed by the Philippines.
Global inflation was forecast to slide from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% and 3.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. These predictions were largely unchanged from previous estimates, but the report noted that inflation would return to target "more gradually" in the US than in other large economies.
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The IMF explained that many factors could disrupt this balance, such as productivity re-evaluations due to AI; trade tensions; larger fiscal deficits, as well as domestic and geopolitical tensions.
However, AI-related investment could transform into sustainable growth and a prolonged relief in trade tensions could foster stability.
It noted the dispute between China and the US regarding semiconductors and rare earth minerals had settled, but the report was written before the recent tariff escalation between the US and Europe regarding Greenland's future.
Global financial conditions were described as "accommodative" despite some volatility, while global trade "remained relatively robust" thanks to expansion in technology-related exports offsetting slowdown in other sectors' exports.
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The report noted: "To stabilise expectations and encourage investment in a broader set of sectors, countries should make reducing policy-driven uncertainty a priority.
"They should establish and adhere to transparent and coherent trade policy frameworks, aided by pragmatic cooperation. This involves advancing multilateral efforts concerning key global commons, updating international regulations where feasible, and exploring regional or plurilateral solutions where appropriate."
"Policies to foster stability and sustainably lift medium-term growth prospects require a keen focus on restoring fiscal buffers, preserving price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and implementing structural reforms without further delay," it added.
