Impeachment inertia: Have markets become desensitised to global political troubles?

Markets rebound despite talk of impeachment in Brazil and the US

Anna Fedorova
clock • 2 min read

The early days of Donald Trump's presidency may well be some of the most dramatic in his country's history: he is already facing calls for impeachment as concern grows about his Russian connections.

At the same time, trouble is brewing once again in Brazil, with new President Michel Temer facing potential impeachment over a political 'hush money' scandal.

Over on our side of the pond, the political battle is heating up ahead of the UK General Election on 8 June, while matters of national security have come to the forefront after a horrific terrorist attack in Manchester.

However, the markets seem to have become desensitised to these global political troubles.

When talk of President Trump's impeachment first appeared in the media, the dollar initially dropped to a six-month low and the VIX index, a gauge of volatility on Wall Street, saw its biggest jump since the UK Brexit vote.

But now the VIX is back down at 10.51 (at the time of publication), close to its low point of 9.77 earlier in May, and the S&P 500 is continuing on a steady upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, after a 10% fall for the Brazilian stockmarket on the news about Temer, it has begun showing signs of recovery already as investors take advantage of opportunities.

According to TrackInsight, Brazilian equity ETFs have seen €534m of inflows over the three days to 23 May.

So what will it take for investors to flock back to safe-haven assets, such as gold?

Over the week to 24 May, the price of gold has risen just 0.2% to $1,252 per ounce, and remains 2.6% lower over the month, despite growing political uncertainty around the globe.

But James Trescothick, global strategist at easyMarkets, believes gold could gain following more Trump impeachment speculation, and even reach the key level of $1,270, followed by another rise to $1,300.

Although Trescothick noted an impeachment would not happen overnight, adding: "In my opinion, it is most likely to happen similarly to Richard Nixon's impeachment. Nixon resigned before the impeachment vote took place; Trump may very well do the same."

Paddy Power has the odds of a Trump impeachment in 2017 at just 21-10, but the odds of him surviving a full first term are at 4-6 against him.

So is now the time to buy gold in anticipation of an unfolding drama in the US, or will the markets once again remain complacent and tick along as if nothing has happened?

Trescothick expects investors to "buy the rumour and sell the fact", so if gold prices go up now, they may well fall again if an impeachment is announced.

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