Chance of a May majority below 60 - 55%
"There is a 55% chance that the Conservatives will have a majority of below 60. Should this happen, sterling would wobble, and would fall sharply if that majority is below 40 and Theresa May is again beholden to the hard Brexit lobby of Tory MPs.
"FTSE 100 would rally as sterling falls, UK-focused stocks weaken and gilt prices would rise (and yields fall) in anticipation of a weaker economy.
"Anything below 25 and May's job would be on the line, with a leadership contest beckoning. Sterling would then fall further as the risk of a hard Brexit Prime Minister, such as David Davis, is priced in. Capital markets would become very volatile."
Photos: Jim Mattis/Creative Commons CC BY 2.0/iStockphoto
Chance of a May majority below 60 - 55%
"There is a 55% chance that the Conservatives will have a majority of below 60. Should this happen, sterling would wobble, and would fall sharply if that majority is below 40 and Theresa May is again beholden to the hard Brexit lobby of Tory MPs.
"FTSE 100 would rally as sterling falls, UK-focused stocks weaken and gilt prices would rise (and yields fall) in anticipation of a weaker economy.
"Anything below 25 and May's job would be on the line, with a leadership contest beckoning. Sterling would then fall further as the risk of a hard Brexit Prime Minister, such as David Davis, is priced in. Capital markets would become very volatile."
Photos: Jim Mattis/Creative Commons CC BY 2.0/iStockphoto
Tom Elliott, deVere Group's international investment strategist, has set out four likely scenarios and the consequences for various asset classes ahead of the UK General Election taking place on Thursday.
Tom Elliott, deVere Group's international investment strategist, has set out four likely scenarios and the consequences for various asset classes ahead of the UK General Election taking place on Thursday.
His predictions include the pound coming under intense pressure, UK-focused stocks will weakening, gilt prices rising and capital markets experiencing significant volatility after the UK's general election.
The four scenarios outlined in the gallery above come as the gap between the Conservatives and Labour, the two major parties has continued to narrow in recent days.
The latest poll from YouGov has the Conservative lead at just four points over Labour, while ICM has it standing at 11 points.
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