Chance of a May majority below 60 - 55%
"There is a 55% chance that the Conservatives will have a majority of below 60. Should this happen, sterling would wobble, and would fall sharply if that majority is below 40 and Theresa May is again beholden to the hard Brexit lobby of Tory MPs.
"FTSE 100 would rally as sterling falls, UK-focused stocks weaken and gilt prices would rise (and yields fall) in anticipation of a weaker economy.
"Anything below 25 and May's job would be on the line, with a leadership contest beckoning. Sterling would then fall further as the risk of a hard Brexit Prime Minister, such as David Davis, is priced in. Capital markets would become very volatile."
Photos: Jim Mattis/Creative Commons CC BY 2.0/iStockphoto
Chance of a May majority above 60 - 25%
"A Conservative majority of more than 60 - from the current 17 - has a 25% chance of occurring. Such a majority would vindicate her decision to call an election, and give her a large enough majority to effectively ignore the estimated 30 or so Conservative MPs who want as hard a Brexit as possible.
"Sterling would rally as the prospect of May doing a soft Brexit deal rises. Short-term gilts would fall in price (and yields rise) as the prospect for the economy improves.
"On the stockmarket, FTSE 100 foreign currency earning stocks would weaken as sterling rallies, but UK-focused stocks would rally as prospects for the economy improve. This would lead to outperformance by mid- and small-cap indices, compared to FTSE 100."
Chance of a hung parliament - 15%
"There is a 15% chance of no parliamentary majority. A Labour/Liberal Democrat pact could emerge to govern. The Lib Dems (led by Tim Farron, pictured) would likely ensure a soft Brexit: a Norway-like arrangement, but without free movement of people, in return for large annual payments to Brussels.
"But sterling, UK-focused stocks and gilt prices would all fall on the prospect of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM."
Photo: Liberal Democrats/Creative Commons CC BY-ND 2.0
Chance of a Labour majority - 5%
"I put a Labour majority at a 5% chance. Not so different from the previous scenario as regards to impact on capital markets, though Britain's relationship to the EU would be more distant, with fewer obligations and benefits."
Photo: Chatham House/Creative Commons CC BY 2.0
Tom Elliott, deVere Group's international investment strategist, has set out four likely scenarios and the consequences for various asset classes ahead of the UK General Election taking place on Thursday.
Tom Elliott, deVere Group's international investment strategist, has set out four likely scenarios and the consequences for various asset classes ahead of the UK General Election taking place on Thursday.
His predictions include the pound coming under intense pressure, UK-focused stocks will weakening, gilt prices rising and capital markets experiencing significant volatility after the UK's general election.
The four scenarios outlined in the gallery above come as the gap between the Conservatives and Labour, the two major parties has continued to narrow in recent days.
The latest poll from YouGov has the Conservative lead at just four points over Labour, while ICM has it standing at 11 points.
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