Oil rally or 'dead cat bounce'? Five managers give their verdicts

Iimpact of prolonged low oil price

clock • 4 min read

The oil price has fallen a long way from the dizzying heights of $150 a barrel seen in recent years, plummeting below $30 earlier this year.

However, it has since been steadily moving higher and Brent crude is currently hovering around the $40 mark.

Below, five managers assess whether this is the start of the recovery of the oil price or a short-lived uplift and discuss where the investment opportunities might be in their respective asset classes.

argonaut-gregbennettGreg Bennett, co-manager, Argonaut Absolute Return fund

"At the start of 2015, the median oil price being used by analysts was $80 and $85 for 2015 and 2016. Currently it is $55 and $58 - a 30% cut in the most important modelling assumption - unsurprisingly resulting in negative earnings revisions. Notwithstanding these earnings revisions, many oil stocks remain resilient.

"However, the world has been over-producing oil every quarter from the start of 2014. Since oil was last over $100, global production is up 3.6m bbl/day. Even if, as the IEA expects, US shale production falls by 600k bbl/day next year, the world currently over-produces oil by 1.6m bbl/day.

"The clear risk is oil continues to stay at current levels, or lower, over the near term. Producers will not cut due to economics, while Saudi Arabia is unlikely to cut until it achieves its aims. This would mean significant downward revisions to earnings expectations and valuations for the sector.

"Equally, it will mean recent M&A and debt issuance, based on budgeted higher oil assumptions, may not be as economical as first thought. A veritable house of cards."

riley-willWill Riley, co-manager, Guinness Global Energy fund

"The last few weeks have seen a very strong rally for oil equities driven by short covering rather than long-only options, which is why it has been so violent. Global production remains in oversupply so the price is likely to stay volatile over the next few months.

"Global oil demand has been very strong since the collapse in price. We saw growth last year of 1.6m bbl/day - the best growth in demand for five years - particuarly in China and the US.

"We started 2016 with an oversupplied market, and we think this will get a little bit worse, as oil comes in from Iran. However, as the year goes on we think this will be offset by growing demand and shrinking US supply.

"Our best guess is that the market will start to move into balance in H2 2016. If this is correct, then 2017 will see the development of a much tighter market as supply continues to shrink and demand grows."

jeremy-lang-009Jeremy Lang, manager, Ardevora Global Equity fund

"The key debate for the outlook for oil is 'what is normal'? We think capital intensive Chinese growth and OPEC are not normal conditions in the long term history of oil.

"Using the last 20, or even 50 years, as a basis to make predictions about the oil price looks to us to be especially error prone. Hence, businesses which have looked good over the last 10 years may have been relying on conditions unlikely to be repeated."

jamison-andrew-t-rowe-price-2016Andrew Jamison, high yield credit analyst, T. Rowe Price

"With yields on high yield energy issues averaging almost 600bps higher than the broad market at the end of 2015, much bad news clearly has been built into valuations. At some point, this yield pickup will become too attractive for high yield investors to ignore.

"That time, however, has not yet arrived, in our view. With credit fundamentals still deteriorating, and liquidity conditions fragile at best, caution is warranted. We expect 2016 to be a year of volatility and bottom testing, offering select bargains, but also considerable risks.

"However, if oil prices do fall far enough to shut off excess supply, energy issues could prove an interesting place to invest in 2017. Oil and gas producers - leveraged both to any rebound in prices and to continued cost reductions and productivity gains - appear best positioned to benefit."

lundie-fraserFraser Lundie, co-head of credit, Hermes Investment Management

"The correlation between commodities, particularly oil, and US high yield is likely to remain high, given the loss of names from the indexes via defaults is being more than offset by 'fallen angel' supply from investment grade.

"The high yield market reaction to any improvement in commodity outlook is amplified by the light positioning in affected sectors mirroring the poor sentiment in the space.

"We remain constructive on higher quality US high yield, in particular areas such as basic industry, autos and auto parts, where opportunities have presented themselves in solid, improving credits sold off in sympathy with oil.

"Indeed for some, lower oil is in fact a tailwind, and when combined with exposure to the still robust US consumer, makes the market appear attractive when compared with European high yield, where higher exposure to banks and a lack of illiquidity premium on small-scale corporates leave us cautious at current valuations."

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