Brent crude was up 0.2% at time of reporting today (6 December) to reach $61.9 a barrel, according to data from MarketWatch.
While oil indices and companies have grown in value following events in Venezuela, the real impact on the 'black gold' trade could be many months, or even years away, managers and analysts have warned.
The US sent strikes into Venezuela's capital, Caracas, on Saturday (3 January) and detained its president, Nicolás Maduro.
US President Donald Trump posted that Maduro and his wife were "captured and flown out of the country". They were both questioned at a New York court on Monday (5 December).
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Venezuela holds 17% of the world's proven crude oil reserves, the largest in the world, according to the US Energy Information Administration, and oil markets have shifted in the past few days, on the positive side.
Brent crude was up 0.5% reaching $62.1 a barrel at time of reporting, and has increased 1.9% since the beginning of the year, according to data from MarketWatch.
The US' oil benchmark, the West Texas Intermediate, rose by 0.35% today and is up by 2.1% since 1 January.
Major energy stocks have also felt the benefit, with BP shares rose by 0.8% today and 1.3% over the last six days, while Chevron and ExxonMobil' grew by 7.5% and 4.2%, respectively, in the first few days of 2026 amid widespread reports that the major US names were scrambling to partake in Trump's claims that they will be able to access the reserves for profit now.
While these geopolitical events have impacted the oil price, investors have so far remained unmoved by the recent events in Venezuela, in terms of near term panic or backing oil as a longer-term investment theme.
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Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Heightened geopolitical tensions like the ones we have seen over the weekend would normally spook investors, but global markets have avoided a sell-off.
"Investors appear to be taking the view that events in Venezuela will not lead to full-blown war. This situation is still fluid, which means that investor sentiment could quickly change."
Gorky Urquieta, co-head of emerging markets debt at Neuberger Berman, said it was far too early to judge the impact.
He explained: "Near-term effects on oil prices, and therefore on rates, should be largely immaterial. Over the medium term, the balance is mildly negative for oil prices given the higher likelihood of increased Venezuelan supply."
Urquieta also noted that ramping up production by around one million barrels per day (essentially more than doubling existing output which is roughly only 1% of global output) is "likely to take at least 18 months".
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John Wyn-Evans, head of market analysis at Rathbones, concurred with Urquieta: "The removal of President Nicolás Maduro marks a significant geopolitical moment, but from a market perspective, its impact is expected to be limited.
"Venezuela represents just 0.1% of global GDP and contributes around 1% of the world's oil supply - a stark contrast to the 1970s when those figures were 1% and 8%, respectively."
Wyn-Evans also highlighted that the South American nation's oil reserves are "heavy" and it would require "vast investment in infrastructure" to unlock its potential.
Morningstar's director of equity research, Allen Good, explained that even though the the US interest "makes sense initially, following years of neglect and sanctions, Venezuela's oil industry will require tens of billions in investment to lift production meaningfully".
"Furthermore, the bulk of its reserves are extra-heavy oil, which is costly and capital-intensive to extract. Oil companies will need to be cautious about deploying capital until there is greater regulatory and contractual certainty," he added.
Paul Jackson, global market strategist, EMEA, at Invesco, suggested it "could take years for the unexploited reserves to come into production".
He noted: "A rise in Venezuelan oil production could impact the global oil market but not for a few years. That may put downward pressure on prices but, given the uncertainties, it is not guaranteed to happen."
