Confused picture for rate lift-off

Recent market volatility adds to uncertainty

The timing of the eagerly anticipated launch point for US interest rates is still dividing economists and market commentators, just a fortnight before the crucial meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 16-17 September.

According to a survey by Bloomberg, 48% of the 54 economists interviewed over the time of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers (27-31 August) predicted a September increase, down from 77% who backed this scenario in an 7-12 August survey. This compares to 17% who favour October and 24% opting for December as the likely time for a rise.   It is easy to see why contradictory comments from key figures at the Federal Reserve and Bank of England have confused  matters since the ‘Black Monday’ share rout sent shock waves through markets. William Dudley, president of the New York bran...