Blowing bubbles for the new year

THE ALCHEMIST

As goes the first week of January, so goes the year, according to the analysts who try to predict which assets will deliver best returns over the following 12 months.

Investors are often bombarded with annual outlooks that attempt, by wit or erudition, to sell the ideas and products that could take maximum advantage of market conditions. Last year, it was the bond market that was generating most excitement. This year, it is commodities, propelled by the highs already touched in recent months. There are many investors already wary of the run up the asset class has enjoyed. They are ready to take profits now and leave the increasing risk of continued engagement to those slower or more cautious players who missed the early rally, or to the eternal opt...