Are employment figures the real reason the Fed is holding back on rates?

The reason for the Federal Reserve's caution on rates could be closer to home: US unemployment is simply higher than headlines suggest.

We have looked at four indicators, each of which points to slack in the labour market: employment, food stamps, the fiscal balance, and wage growth. Employment and unemployment should be different sides of the same coin. If someone loses or gains a job, the coin should flip. In the 20 years before the global financial crisis, this relationship held true. But these indicators have now diverged: given the headline unemployment rate, 63% of Americans should be in work. The actual number is just 59%, suggesting joblessness of 9%. Food stamps tell a similar tale. Over long periods, ther...