monetary policy

Bullish on risk assets

Largest democratic exercise ever taken

US/China and Brexit behind selected calls

Growth in the eurozone is slowing to stall-speed. The most recent raft of indicators point to weak manufacturing activity, with German data at lows last seen in 2009.

Economic and investor implications

Growth could be unimpeded by trade tensions

At the start of 2019 there were three main reasons to be bearish.

The most significant consideration for all investors in the US is the actions of its Federal Reserve.

Dovish Fed contributing to forecast

UK equities had a positive start to 2019. While this can be partly viewed as a rebound after 2018's difficult final quarter, what is likely to have been most significant is an extraordinary U-turn by the US Federal Reserve.