Event Voice: GIB Asset Management's Pascal Nicoli: Volatility is an opportunity if you're active

clock • 3 min read
Event Voice: GIB Asset Management's Pascal Nicoli: Volatility is an opportunity if you're active

Volatility is becoming an increasingly prominent feature of fixed income markets. With rate shocks, political instability, and concentrated credit stress, the backdrop remains uncertain. For many investors, that creates anxiety, but for us, it creates opportunity.

At GIB Asset Management, our Sustainable World Corporate Bond Fund is built on two core beliefs: the world is changing rapidly, and credit is a mean-reverting asset class. Dislocations happen, and when they do, nimble active managers with a disciplined framework can capture alpha.

Today's market illustrates this well. Credit spreads remain tight and broad indices are not signalling systemic stress, but we are seeing isolated stress in specific names and sectors, and that distinction matters. In this environment, investors should remain disciplined, considering both fundamental analysis and industry trends to assess whether valuations adequately compensate for risk. Only then can you identify opportunities and capture relative value. When general risk premium is low, broad beta is unlikely to drive returns, selectivity will.

Current yield levels provide a meaningful cushion against capital losses. However, capital appreciation is more likely to come from identifying mispricing during periods of volatility than from passive exposure.

Active management matters in Corporate Bond markets

Corporate bond markets are often treated as a ‘sleepy' corner of asset allocation. In reality, they remain structurally inefficient. Credit investors need a disciplined approach to find opportunities for outperformance while managing risk. Through systematic monitoring of long-term credit valuations, both on absolute basis and relative to their typical volatility, the Sustainable World Corporate Bond Fund is positioned to exploit market inefficiencies while maintaining controlled risk positioning.

We combine a thematic, forward-looking lens with a long-term valuation framework. This allows us to build conviction in companies that have resilient business models and durable revenue drivers, while proactively assessing potential threats.

When volatility hits, whether driven by politics, macro headlines, or sector-specific fear, we're ready. This was the case post Liberation Day in 2025, and it remains the case now. Our ability to dynamically adjust credit risk post-volatility is central to our process. We are a small, experienced, and agile team, allowing us to react quickly when markets overshoot and remain disciplined when markets are fully valued.

We do not believe that chasing yield drives consistent long-term performance, but disciplined credit risk allocation and informed security selection do.

Structural shifts and credit markets

Structural shifts in the global economy are increasingly influencing credit markets. Investment cycles linked to digital infrastructure, electrification, and automation are reshaping issuance patterns and sector dynamics. These developments can affect index composition, rating distribution, and relative value across sectors. Alongside these longer-term trends, more recent escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added a further layer of uncertainty, contributing to energy price volatility and renewed inflation.

Despite these overlapping structural and cyclical forces shaping the backdrop, credit markets do not always immediately differentiate between companies with durable business models and those facing structural headwinds. Our proprietary thematic framework helps identify megatrends and associated investment opportunities, allowing us to invest in businesses positioned to benefit and not those which may be vulnerable.

Our approach is not to invest in narratives, but to buy resilience. We focus on balance sheet strength, free cash flow durability, management quality and, critically, valuation.

Built for flexibility

The Fund is structured around a custom benchmark that combines 60% Global Investment Grade corporates, 20% global High Yield and 20% Emerging Markets (USD hedged). Why? Because real-world credit opportunity does not sit neatly inside a single region or rating bucket. This structure allows us to allocate to high yield or EM when valuations compensate for risk, while maintaining a core investment grade anchor. It gives us diversification and flexibility without sacrificing discipline.

Risk-adjusted returns are our priority. We embed stress testing, independent risk controls, and long-term valuation discipline into portfolio construction. We aim to optimise for income, but we are careful not to overreach for incremental spread. Our portfolio is diversified across 80–100 global companies, aligned to long-term sustainability themes such as Clean Energy, Circularity, Efficiency and Inclusivity.

Corporate bonds deserve a place in portfolios today. They offer income, diversification, and downside protection relative to equities. However, this is not a market for passive complacency, it is a market for active managers who can navigate volatility and use it to their advantage. In credit, volatility is not the enemy, it creates opportunity. 

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