The S&P 500’s losses for 2020 are expected to bounce back from lows of -34% seen in the first few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic to post a loss of 7%, according to a Natixis Investment Managers survey of 2,700 global investment professionals.
The survey, which included advisers, wealth managers, broker/dealers, and financial planners, found investors are optimistic global stockmarkets will continue to recover throughout the year with an expected 2020 loss for the MSCI World index of 7.3%.
UK investors, meanwhile are more optimistic, anticipating MSCI World losses of 6.9% for the year, but also believe the FTSE 100 will finish the year down 7.2%.
The survey found Australian and German investors are the most pessimistic in their outlook, expecting 2020 MSCI World losses of 13.4% and 12.8%. Each group was also more pessimistic with regard to their own markets with German investors expecting a 2020 fall of 16.6% for the DAX and Australians forecasting a loss of 12.6% for the ASX 200.
By contrast, US investment professionals were more optimistic, with expectations of losses of 6.1% and 3.6% by year-end for the MSCI World and S&P 500 respectively.
Meanwhile, ongoing volatility remains the top risk to portfolio performance and market outlook, with 69% of respondents citing it as a top concern, followed by recession fears at 67%. UK investors are most concerned by volatility, with 78% citing it as a top risk.
The risk posed to portfolios by geopolitical events was seen as a top risk by 47% of respondents globally, while 60% of UK respondents said the same.
Managing director of UK retail and wholesale sales at Natixis Investment Managers Darren Pilbeam said: "With economies slowly reopening,financial advisors around the world are bullish on recovery.
"But they are also focused on how to shield clients from the volatility they expect to come with it. The crisis has been a perfect storm for emotional investment decision-making, and with the downturn exposing the limitations of passive investing, the vast majority of advisors are looking to active management in the current environment."