US economy in 'good shape' despite unwinding of Trump trade
Hard data lagging soft indicators
Dowding: "The partial unwinding of the so-called ‘Trump trade’ should not detract from a strong domestic labour market and a broader synchronised global economic upturn"
A hot topic of discussion recently has been the divergence between strong economic sentiment data and trailing hard (real) data, leading investors to question the ability of the Trump administration to deliver a potent boost to the US economy.
We believe the market's outlook is meaningfully pessimistic than justified by current US economic fundamentals and policy outlook. The macro backdrop is currently pervaded with a sense of overall bearishness....
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