How high can oil prices go?

Mark Lacey and Jonathan Waghorn, co-portfolio managers, Investec Global Energy fund We have recently increased our oil price expectations to reflect tightening supply/demand fundamentals and higher marginal costs of supply, with assumptions of $90/bl for 2011 and $100/bl for 2012 and longer term. The highest cost non-OPEC producers require around $90/bl to make an 8% return on investments made in 2009, in our view, with price requirements increasing as cost inflation increases. We also believe further cost inflation will take the long-term economic break-even oil price for Canadian tar ...