Marlborough's Nathan Sweeney: Four potential black swans for 2024

Geopolitical tensions and AI

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Hamas’s attack on Israel and the resulting conflict in Gaza caught investors by surprise and led to market volatility amid concerns about a wider war in the Middle East.

What new ‘black swans' could the world face in 2024? Marlborough's multi-asset team have considered a range of unlikely yet plausible scenarios and penned four potential ‘black swan' events that could have a significant impact on markets in the year ahead. China turns its back on Russia to increase trade with the West China has proved Russia's most important ally during the war in Ukraine, with a US government intelligence report citing Beijing as helping Russia "mitigate both the impact of Western sanctions and export controls". Fed minutes warn rates could remain high 'for some...

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