A recession is (very probably) coming

Friday Briefing

"A recession can still be avoided by the UK," wrote Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, responding to Friday's quarterly UK GDP publication, which showed the economy remained in positive territory over the first half of 2023.

The word ‘can' doing a lot of heavy lifting there, as Carter quickly acknowledged, suggesting the "bright spots" being discussed may just be a nice distraction from the delayed pain to come. "The economy may be holding up just now, but it is asking a lot for it to continue to do so for quite so long." Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and PM Rishi Sunak both leant towards the positive interpretation of the results, suggesting the data prove the UK economy is strong, growing and resilient. Earlier in the week, BNY Mellon IM chief economist Shamik Dhar sent out comment on a slightly different n...