It's too warm for a tinfoil hat, but...

Rethinking risk

A conversation I have been repeatedly having recently is how markets, and indeed people, have been unable to catch onto the fact that not only can the most unlikely scenario happen, but recently it has been happening more often than not.

Think back to the summer of 2016, the bookies told us the odds of the UK voting to leave the EU were slim, yet on 23 June 2016 that was the reality the country woke up to. The year prior, when Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign from the lobby of Trump Tower, it was the cannon fodder for comedy sketches for weeks. Simon (Reeve) says: 'We need some seriously inspiring leadership' Fast forward to now, and his supporters are calling for four more years. In late 2019, when the first reports of an unknown virus began to pick up momentum, no one predicted a global lockdown...