Does the US have reason to celebrate 4 July this year?
Political and economic fireworks could spell trouble across the pond
The US stockmarket has spent the large part of 11 years outpacing its peers across the globe as high-quality tech stocks have unrelentingly dominated.
Even though history's longest bull market came to an abrupt halt in March as a result of pandemic-induced lockdowns, the S&P 500 index has still managed to keep its head above water, having gained 2.8% during the first half of the year.
But this has by no means been a smooth path. The US market suffered a record-breaking 20% freefall over 16 days and a short, sharp snapback soon afterwards, which left many investors worried that a swift V-shaped recovery was being priced in with little room for error.
Is there too much optimism in US equity markets?
The flipside of the coin is that large components of the S&P such as Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet have been some of the single biggest beneficiaries from the pandemic in the world.
Artemis' head of US equities Cormac Weldon is approaching the market with "a degree of caution".
"Market prices reflect investors' willingness to take a positive view of data, as well as confidence that the Federal Reserve and Congress can and will do more to support the economy if it falters," he said.
"The negative impacts of the crisis - such as more home-based activity - has resulted in high valuations for some stocks, and some of this will be merited. But as the rally widens, it remains to be seen how quickly we can go back to pre-crisis levels for many companies and sectors."
One determining factor could stem from the US healthcare sector. The successful development of a Covid-19 vaccine could spark optimism in markets, but a second wave - which is looking more likely as case numbers have spiked across several states - could cause greater uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US Presidential Election is four months away and president Donald Trump is looking increasingly unlikely to win re-election in recent polls.
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It is also worth noting that no incumbent US President since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has been re-elected when there has been an economic recession less than two years before polling day.
Aditya Khowala, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said the speed and depth of the Covid recession has "thrown a big wrench" in Trump's original strategy of campaigning on a strong economy.
"I see Trump deploying a two-pronged strategy to try and beat the odds: first, re-escalate the trade war and dial up the rhetoric against China to position it as a scapegoat for the recession; and second, throw the kitchen sink at the economy to make sure that it is full swing before November," he said.
"In the meantime, the conundrums of electioneering and engineering an economic recovery are creating great uncertainties, and markets are becoming lopsided as investors flock to established winners like tech giants."
Fran Radano, manager of the North American Income trust, expects US stockmarket returns to become choppier.
"Market returns are never seemingly a straight line, but patient investors that buy high-quality, cash-generative companies at fair prices have been well rewarded over time," he said.
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