S&P Global Ratings has estimated that full-year growth in China will fall to 5% this year, down from its previous forecast of 5.7%, as coronavirus inflicts a "temporary blow" on its economy.
The ratings agency said it expects a peak hit to China's growth in the first quarter of 2020, with a recovery in place by the third quarter.
S&P's baseline is that the virus will be contained globally in March, and for travel and other restrictions to be unwound by mid-Q2.
However, it warned that if the coronavirus outbreak is not contained "the economic impact could develop exponentially with significant credit implications".
S&P has said that "lost ground" will be made up in 2021 and has forecast above-trend GDP growth of 6.4% for the year, up from 5.6%.
It stated: "This growth path would bring GDP almost back to the same level it would have reached in the absence of the virus by the end of 2021."
S&P Global Ratings added: "The effect is more drawn out than in SARS given the longer time to reach peak infections and the greater extent of travel restrictions in this episode."