Nearly half of UK firms predict recession this year
One-third also predict global recession
Nearly half of all firms in the UK (46%) and US (45%) predict their country will enter a recession in the coming year, while 40% of Chinese firms expect the country to maintain a growth rate of 6-7%.
The new research from trade finance provider Stenn also discovered that over a third of UK (37%) and US (35%) firms anticipate a global recession or international global crisis in 2020.
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More than 700 senior executives at medium to large-sized businesses across the UK, US and China were asked for their opinions on various economic issues facing their own nations, as well as potential global concerns.
In the UK, 33% of firms expect the economy to shrink and 14% believe it will do so by 1-3%, while 6% believe it will remain flat and see no growth.
Stenn said these figures come in the wake of the Office for National Statistics report that the UK economy ended 2019 in stagnation, with the UK economy suffering its worst month for growth in October for more than a decade, after the weakest three months since early 2009.
Despite the US economy seeing a boost at the top of 2020 from figures showing continued recovery in the manufacturing sector, a drop in the number of unemployment claims and President Donald Trump's announcement that a 'phase one' trade deal with China could be signed on 15 January, this is not reflected in US firms' views.
One in six senior executives (16%) expect the US economy to shrink in 2020, most likely by 1-3% (7%), although 6% expect it to see no growth.
The research showed China enjoys more confidence from its firms, with 93% anticipating growth for 2020 in spite of the ongoing trade war. A quarter of Chinese firms (25%) expect 4-5% growth, while another 40% anticipate 6-7% growth for the economy.
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This research also focused on uncovering what firms believe to be the largest risks to business in 2020, with similar themes emerging across the globe.
The UK believes increased geopolitical tensions to be the number one risk, with trade tariffs, Brexit and regional instability cited by 65%.
Second place went to increased environmental concerns and climate change (50%), and changing consumer behaviour, such as online shopping, was third (48%).
Increased cyber threats and data breaches were also high on the list of top risks, with 43% of firms believing them to be a top risk for 2020.
In the US, the consensus on risk was tighter, with increased geopolitical tension, increased environmental concerns and changing consumer behaviour sharing the top spot, according to 54% of businesses.
Just over half (51%) also cited increased cyber threats and data breaches as a top 2020 risk.
China expects changing consumer behaviour to be the greatest risk to business in 2020, with 65% of firms ranking this the top concern.
A global recession or international financial crisis comes a close second (64%), while increased geopolitical tensions takes third with 62%.
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Kerstin Braun, president of Stenn Group, said: "2019 was weaker than expected and the stakes are only higher for the year ahead. Trump has been playing games with global trade and while the Chinese are confident their economy will grow as it moves beyond the US-China trade war, it is a very different story in the UK and US.
"Boris Johnson's election result provided some much-needed solidity the UK has been craving and with Brexit confirmed to go ahead, businesses can begin to plan for the future.
"But the prolonged uncertainty has been battling the UK economy and many businesses are concerned Brexit could cause the economy to shrink in 2020. If current political and economic uncertainties ease, we could see a gradual revival in activity over the course of the year, likely by 1% or 2%."
She added: "At the same time, the US is exposed to the effects of Trump's unpredictable trade actions. While some fundamentals like employment are good, there are enough economic red flags to signal weakness in the second half of 2020.
"The Chinese economy has been growing at rates above +6-7% since the early 1990s, so the fact the majority are optimistic this will continue in 2020 is a good sign.
"A quarter still expect slower growth than normal, at a rate of 4-5%, which comes after China's economic growth rate slowed to a near 30-year low in Q3 2019, affecting people via the jobs market.
"We have already seen unemployment rates at historical highs in 2019 while we don't expect further improvements this year, we expect social inequality in China to increase over time."
But Braun called global trade "most worrisome".
"The capricious US-China tariff war, which started as a security and tech war, has turned into political theatre at the expense of real businesses, while trade in and out of the UK after Brexit is still under threat," Braun added.
"The uncertainty impacts short-term margins and long-term investment plans for companies with international supply chains.
"With the agreement on 15 January, one part of the trade war might come to an end, but the tech war is likely to continue with no solution in sight."
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