David Cumming, Aviva Investors' chief investment officer for equities, remains positive about UK stocks despite a pummelling in 2018
After leaving his previous role at SLA late last year, he says, "I sort of liquidated and put money back in the markets - not quite at the bottom, sadly.
"So, I'm quite comfortable that the UK market looks cheap and although there are risks, the risk-reward ratio is positive."
He cites supportive figures: current valuations, at around 11.5 P/E, are lower than the long-term average of 13 to 13.5, and certainly attractively cheap in comparison to bonds. Yields, meanwhile, stand relatively high at 4.7%.
Brexit
Cumming is upbeat despite the UK's imminent departure from the EU. "The reason the market has lagged other markets is predominantly Brexit," he says.
"If we get some sort of deal, as opposed to no deal, I think the market will profit quite strongly because we've been held down.
"So, any sensible resolution will in my view be worth at least 500 or 600 points from where we are in the market - and that gets you back to normalisation."
Those low-rated large cap stocks would then see a lift, Cumming reasons.
He foresees "a bit of a rebalancing" as the currency rallies, with house builders, domestic retail and leisure stocks all likely to improve as a result.
Finding opportunity in crisis
All this is predicated on politicians' ultimate ability to side-step the risk of crashing out of the EU.
Cumming is in no doubt about the gravity of a different result, which would see business retreating from the UK.
"The closer you are to business, the more uncomfortable you are with no-deal as an outcome," he declares.
Even in this scenario, however, Cumming would steer his team to stay cool-headed and find the best advantage, in line with Aviva Investors active investment philosophy.
Click here to learn more about David Cumming's UK equities outlook for 2019
