Cazenove's Jeffrey: Encouraging signs for the UK?

Improving UK growth

I have written on many occasions about the persistent understatement of growth in the UK economy by the Office for National Statistics when it publishes its initial estimates for any particular quarter or year.

It is not absolutely the case that GDP growth is always under-recorded, but is normally the case. And it normally takes two to four years before the truth emerges. The most dramatic misreading of growth by the ONS in recent times relates to 2012. For that year, the ONS initially reported that the economy had totally stagnated - that there was no growth. Now, to a slight background cough of surprise, we are told that growth was 1.5%. 'The UK will be OK': Managers say 'unloved' market can defy 'gloomy forecasts' Just in the last few weeks, I have seen wider recognition of the problem...