Ward: Is the global economy about to 'double dip'?

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Henderson chief economist Simon Ward questions whether monetary tightening and fiscal cutbacks could send the global economy into a ‘double dip' recession.

Recent economic news has been unexceptional, but the balance of surprises has turned negative, consistent with a slowdown. Investors, however, are concerned that emerging weakness marks the beginning of a "double dip" rather than a short-term resting phase. Such worries, of course, have been exacerbated by the eurozone sovereign debt/banking crisis and associated falls in markets, as well as growing awareness of coming fiscal austerity. The evidence to date, however, provides insufficient basis for altering the view that a slowdown, albeit sharp and possibly extending until early 2011...

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