In the long term, we are all dead

CONTRARIAN INVESTOR

Whenever I talk to fund managers, researchers and analysts charged with managing large pots of money over the very long term, I am astonished to discover how little they are interested in either geopolitics or economic history.

The smart ones always defend themselves by stating predicting the future is a fools errand but I find it odd they do not appear to have any contingency plans for how the unpredictable might devastate their portfolios. Any attempt to plan for the long term must embrace difficult questions such as the likelihood of continued American hegemony in economic and political affairs as well as the powerful tail winds generated by demographic transformation. Geopolitics and demography are the subject of much insightful commentary from the likes of Tim Bond at BarCap (demography and its effect o...