EY Item Club: Expect three years of weak economic growth

Downgraded forecasts

Laura Dew
clock • 1 min read

UK growth will remain weak for at least three years, according to the EY Item Club, with the prospect worsening if Britain is left with a no-deal Brexit.

The organisation has downgraded its forecast for growth in 2018 from 1.4% three months ago to 1.3% while the growth forecast for 2019 has been lowered to 1.5% from 1.6% in the summer. If correct, the 2018 figures would be the worst year of UK economic growth since the financial crisis.  Furthermore, these are based on the assumption the UK could achieve transition terms, but the figures would be "significantly weaker" if this did not occur.  Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: "Heightened uncertainties in the run-up and the aftermath of the UK's exit co...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on Economics

Sticky inflation dampens Bank of England's rate cutting prospects

Sticky inflation dampens Bank of England's rate cutting prospects

MPC to meet on Thursday

Linus Uhlig
clock 18 June 2025 • 3 min read
Tariffs drive record fall in UK exports to US

Tariffs drive record fall in UK exports to US

Imports fall by £400m

Linus Uhlig
clock 12 June 2025 • 2 min read
Partner Insight: What are the implications of policies of the Trump Administration on EMD?

Partner Insight: What are the implications of policies of the Trump Administration on EMD?

Matthew Murphy, Institutional Portfolio Manager of the Emerging Markets Team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM), shared his view on the implications of the policies introduced by the Trump Administration for emerging market debt (EMD). Murphy then explained the firm’s approach to the EMD segment.

Matthew Murphy, Institutional Portfolio Manager of the Emerging Markets Team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM)
clock 12 June 2025 • 7 min read
Trustpilot