Newsflow supports view of a slow crawl out of recession

The overall economic picture, from the combined newsflow at macro and individual company level, is one of uneasy stability.

After the economic paralysis of the final quarter of 2008, activity appears to have at best picked up a bit or at worst carried on deteriorating but at a slower rate. Even for those companies that have experienced stability (or even a pick up), there is a fear that it stems from a rebuilding of inventory following the pre-Christmas collapse rather than a genuine and sustained recovery. We think a V-shaped recovery is too optimistic. We hold this view not because we fancy ourselves as economic forecasters but because the reality of today’s newsflow does not support it. Instead, it is a...