The new 'cold war': Economics, tariffs and technology

Global macroeconomic indicators have undoubtedly become softer, as the US nears full employment and Europe's manufacturing sector continues to suffer from the effects of weaker trade with China.

However, there are signs these trends may be bottoming out rather than intensifying. China has the wherewithal for further policy stimulus, which may revive global trade. Consumer spending, which is supported by rising real wages and a tight labour market, also continues to aid growth. Furthermore, the shift in rhetoric from central banks, combined with lukewarm inflation forecasts, make it unlikely central banks will return to tightening in the near future. Andrew Neil: Cold war will be the new normal of the 2020s The risk of a global recession overall is low and, notwithstandi...