Jeremy Smith, Fund Manager and Head of UK Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments
UK equities' performance this year appears impressive on the surface; however, a closer examination reveals both the complexity of Britain's equity market and why now may be an inflection point for investors.
The FTSE 100's strong performance this year masks concentration. Just eight stocks—five banks and three defence companies—have delivered more than half the index's returns, echoing the concentration dynamics that have defined US markets. However, underneath this concentrated performance lies opportunity: hundreds of companies above £700 million market capitalisation that are trading at compelling valuations.
"Although the index at the top level looks elevated, there is a lot underneath those eight stocks. Valuations are low so, there is plenty of opportunity for investors," says Jeremy Smith, fund manager, UK Equity Income Fund, Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
Currently, UK stocks are trading at their lowest valuation relative to US stocks in 40 years; the gap that appears excessive even accounting for structural differences.
Smith says that this divergence stems from two forces: the extraordinary outperformance of US technology stocks and persistent outflows from UK stocks as domestic wealth managers reduce home market exposure. Currently, Britain's savings industry now holds its lowest allocation to domestic equities of any developed market.
The prevailing narrative around UK equities—that they offer no growth, that structural forces doom them to perpetual underperformance—confuses symptom with cause.
Smith argues that stocks haven't underperformed because of fundamental weakness; but simply because more investors have sold than bought, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of withdrawal and valuation compression.
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