New year, old problems: The macro outlook for 2020

Heightened volatility here to stay

For time immemorial, the start of the year has been a period for fresh gazing into the future, for pondering the changes that the year ahead might bring.

For government bond investors this year, however, it is remarkable how similar the issues on the horizon look to those they might have mentioned at the start of last year, even if there have been signs of progress. Heading into 2019, one of the main concerns for investors was the state of US-China trade talks. Despite some reassuring rhetoric there were grave uncertainties about the future talks given the political leaders involved. FX market volatility: What will happen in 2020? That description reasonably summarises today's situation, in which the positive rhetoric betrays the hu...