US recession overtakes geopolitical conflict as top tail risk for global investors

BofA Global Fund Manager survey

A recession in the US has overtaken geopolitical conflict as the number one tail risk for global investors, but conviction over a soft landing remains unchanged.

According to Bank of America's Global Fund Manager survey, concerns about a US recession have surged to 39% in August, up from 18% in July, replacing geopolitical conflict (25%) as the top tail risk. Global growth expectations have fallen from a net -27% in July to -47%, with optimism on China reaching its lowest level since May 2022.  However, the probability of a ‘soft landing' has increased from 68% to 76%, while the likelihood of a ‘no landing' scenario has dropped from 18% to 8%, and the probability of a ‘hard landing' has risen slightly from 11% to 13%. Economic 'boom' expect...