US recession overtakes geopolitical conflict as top tail risk for global investors

BofA Global Fund Manager survey

Valeria Martinez
clock • 2 min read

A recession in the US has overtaken geopolitical conflict as the number one tail risk for global investors, but conviction over a soft landing remains unchanged.

According to Bank of America's Global Fund Manager survey, concerns about a US recession have surged to 39% in August, up from 18% in July, replacing geopolitical conflict (25%) as the top tail risk. Global growth expectations have fallen from a net -27% in July to -47%, with optimism on China reaching its lowest level since May 2022.  However, the probability of a ‘soft landing' has increased from 68% to 76%, while the likelihood of a ‘no landing' scenario has dropped from 18% to 8%, and the probability of a ‘hard landing' has risen slightly from 11% to 13%. Economic 'boom' expect...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on US

Global markets recover tentatively amid tariffs drama as investors fret over what comes next
US

Global markets recover tentatively amid tariffs drama as investors fret over what comes next

Challenges will persist

Sorin Dojan
clock 05 February 2025 • 3 min read
Trump's tariff barrage will test strength of UK 'special relationship'
US

Trump's tariff barrage will test strength of UK 'special relationship'

Universal tariffs could spell trouble

Sorin Dojan
clock 04 February 2025 • 6 min read
Trump speculates TikTok purchase via sovereign wealth fund creation
US

Trump speculates TikTok purchase via sovereign wealth fund creation

Amid tariff chaos

Linus Uhlig
clock 04 February 2025 • 1 min read
Trustpilot