• Home
  • Sustainable Investment Week
    • ESG
    • Sustainable Investment
    • Sustainable Investing
  • Equities
    • UK
    • Global
    • Europe
    • US
    • Asia
    • Emerging markets
    • Specialist
  • Bonds
  • Multi-asset
  • Funds
    • Unit trusts/OEICs
    • Investment Trusts
    • VCTs/EIS
    • Platforms
    • ETFs
    • Pensions
  • Regulation
  • Diversity
  • People moves
  • Events
  • Financial library
  • Industry blogs
  • Digital Edition
  • Newsletters
  • Sign in
    • logged-in-corporate-menuYou are currently accessing Investment Week via your Enterprise account.

      If you already have an account please use the link below to sign in.

      If you have any problems with your access or would like to request an individual access account please contact our customer service team.

      Phone: +44 (0) 1858 438800

      Email: [email protected]

      • Sign in
     
      • Account details
      • Newsletters
      • Contact support
      • Sign out
     
  • Follow us
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Newsletters
    • Facebook
    • YouTube
    • Instagram
  • Register
  • Events
    • Upcoming events
      event logo
      European equities: How to stay in sync with the cycle and prepare for recovery

      Our expert panellists on Investment Week’s latest webinar will discuss how investors in Europe should best position themselves for the new economic cycle, which is likely to have very different characteristics from the last.

      • Date: 04 Mar 2021
      • ONLINE, ONLINE
      event logo
      Fund Selector Briefing: Channel Islands 2021

      This interactive briefing will bring together senior investment professionals involved in the fund selection process from across the Channel Islands to hear from and question leading fund managers covering a range of asset classes.

      • Date: 04 Mar 2021
      • ONLINE, ONLINE
      event logo
      Funds to Watch Conference - March

      The Funds to Watch series from Investment Week allows sponsors to show-case up and coming or evolving funds and managers to some of the most influential fund selectors in the UK.

      • Date: 09 Mar 2021
      • ONLINE, ONLINE
      event logo
      Professional Adviser Working Lunches 2021

      A series of invitation only "meet the manager" virtual lunches to discuss how a multi-asset strategy can benefit your clients and your business.

      • Date: 10 Mar 2021
      • ONLINE, ONLINE
      View all events
      Follow our events

      Sign up to receive email alerts about our events

      Sign up

  • White papers
    • Fidelity logo whitebackground1200 630px 1 120x194
      The ETF Evolution

      In this exclusive magazine exploring the evolution of quality and income ETF strategies, King reveals that each ETF follows an investment strategy developed by the group's in-house research team that leverages fundamental active insights to inform the factor definitions and applies portfolio construction principles to mitigate the unintended biases.

      Download
      7ded04ac5957a69da8d1df41c8f21a0c33988d8f 1 120x194
      A bet on the UK bounce back

      David Cumming, Aviva Investors' chief investment officer for equities, last year witnessed turbulent times for UK equities but he remains positive about the market in which he has a personal as well as a professional stake.

      Download
      Find white papers
      Search by title or subject area
      View all white papers
  • Industry blogs
  • Digital Edition
Investment Week
Investment Week
Sponsored by BMO
  • Home
  • Sustainable Investment Week
  • Equities
  • Bonds
  • Multi-asset
  • Funds
  • Regulation
  • Diversity
  • People moves
  • logged-in-corporate-menuYou are currently accessing Investment Week via your Enterprise account.

    If you already have an account please use the link below to sign in.

    If you have any problems with your access or would like to request an individual access account please contact our customer service team.

    Phone: +44 (0) 1858 438800

    Email: [email protected]

    • Sign in
 
    • Account details
    • Newsletters
    • Contact support
    • Sign out
 
  • Trending
  • IW 1 Mar issue
  • Past IW issues
  • 'Coiled spring' market
  • Interview: Mark Mobius
  • Europe webinar
  • Industry Voice

Industry Voice: Assessing Asia's growth prospects

  • Investment Week
  • Tweet  
  • Facebook  
  • LinkedIn  
  • Share on Whatsapp
  • Send to  
0 Comments

Are economic indicators suggesting that Asia can weather the world's deflationary forces?

Robert Horrocks, PhD
Chief Investment Officer, Matthews Asia

I think it is fair to say that sentiment toward China, and by extension, Asia, is quite polarized. Whereas some investors I have met recently see opportunity in the weakness of the second half of 2015, doubts over the reality of recent growth rates and anxiety over a slower headline rate of growth has caused many others to be quite fearful of China as a deflationary force in the world economy. It is not hard to see why: the prospect of further tightening by U.S. monetary policy-this time in the form of rising rates; slowing nominal growth; low margins and disappointing earnings growth; a strong dollar and weak local currencies; increasing credit spreads; and poor momentum in the equity markets. And all of this is happening at a time when valuations, whilst not expensive, cannot be regarded as cheap in absolute terms.

Now, let me just suggest that we have some data that should allow us to be more confident over Asia's ability to weather the world's deflationary forces. First, current accounts in Asia are generally positive. That means Asia's countries are saving more domestically than they invest domestically. And so, they are relatively less reliant on foreign capital. There are some exceptions-India and Indonesia. But even here, reliance on U.S.-dollar capital markets has reduced dramatically over recent years. Second, inflation rates are low across much of the region (again Indonesia and India are exceptions, even though they have been successful at moderate price rises). These low inflation rates mean that Asia's policymakers have a lot of room to offset deflationary impulses by either monetary policy or even government spending or tax cuts. A return to a more inflationary environment would relieve some pressure on margins, earnings and valuations.

The question is: are we seeing any signs of such a response? I think we are. First, there are the natural responses of markets: prices adjust. Most obviously, in the face of deflationary U.S. pressures, Asia's currencies have taken the strain. Then, we have the active response of policymakers. In India, we have seen the central bank successfully squeeze down core inflation rates without too severe an impact on industrial profits (perhaps helped by lower commodity prices).In China, we are seeing authorities raise the growth rate of narrow money, continue to press with financial system reforms, and support the property market. Japan is continuing its policy of reflation and structural reform initiatives. So, in the face of a deflationary U.S. policy, the three Asia giants seem to be leaning in the other direction. The degree of offset is perhaps still small. But talking to clients and investors around the region leaves me to believe that there is no great liquidity crisis. Indeed, if the acutely bearish reaction to the Chinese currency re-pegging in the middle of 2015 taught us anything it is that, in the wake of a fall in equity prices, value was quick to emerge and buyers were quick to enter the markets.

In this context, Asia's long-term growth prospects still look good. High savings rates, large manufacturing bases, reformist governments pursuing financial, legal, and corporate reforms mean that Asia should continue to invest and potentially grow at higher rates than the rest of the world. Over time, this investment will continue to raise real wages across the region.

Although the headwinds are currently considerable, Asia's businesses seem to be weathering the storm, and so long as we keep our eye on the long term, the investment environment should offer up some good opportunities.

To learn more about where we see investment opportunities in Asia, read the extended version of our 2016 investment outlook.


For institutional/professional/eligible counterparty use only.

The views and information discussed in this article are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reflect the writers' current views. The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time, are opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. Such information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities or investment vehicles. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation, but no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of this information. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC ("Matthews Asia") does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information.
BY07x

  • Tweet  
  • Facebook  
  • LinkedIn  
  • Share on Whatsapp
  • Send to  
  • Topics
  • Industry Voice
  • Industry Voice
  • Matthews Asia
  • China
  • currency
blog comments powered by Disqus
Back to Top
Trustpilot

 

  • Contact us
  • Marketing solutions
  • About Incisive Media
  • Terms and conditions
  • Policies
  • Careers
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • Newsletters
  • Facebook
  • YouTube
  • Instagram

© Incisive Business Media (IP) Limited, Published by Incisive Business Media Limited, New London House, 172 Drury Lane, London WC2B 5QR, registered in England and Wales with company registration numbers 09177174 & 09178013

Digital publisher of the year
Digital publisher of the year 2010, 2013, 2016 & 2017
Loading