In recent months we have seen a stunning reversal in the US 10-Year Treasury Bond yield, falling from over 3.2% to 2.5%.
This reflects a reassessment by investors on the outlook for global growth; essentially, we are faced with a slowdown or soft landing. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index confirmed this trend with weaker recent readings, indicating data releases have been worse than economists' forecasts. The US inflation rate has also remained surprisingly well behaved with a key index for a basket of consumer goods almost halving since summer 2018. US small-cap growth investors have been rubbing their hands in glee as this scenario has unfolded, as it is as close to an ideal backdrop for the a...
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