Psigma's Becket: Why Fed inaction is a victory for EMs - and star player China

For much of 2015, and the early part of 2016, I only had to check the direction of the oil price and the Shanghai Composite to work out how good - or bad - the day ahead would be.

Today, that obsession has been temporarily shelved and it is the dollar index that has taken centre stage in investors' restless nights. Since what appears to have been a market inflection point in mid-February, it has been a simple equation: dollar weakness equals risk-on, value up, growth down, credit spreads tightening, commodities recovering, and most investors hating it. This trend had been firmly in place for two-and-a-half months until the last ten days, when a correction has taken place. Central bank 'puppets' Before attempting to outline the next act of this dramatic yea...