Goldman Sachs' World Cup quant model has revised its predictions for the winners of the World Cup after previous front runners Brazil and Germany crashed out of the tournament.
According to the black box simulations, Belgium will edge out France while England will defeat Croatia in the semi-finals, which are taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
This will subsequently leave Belgium to defeat England in the final meaning football will not be 'coming home' this summer, (according to the model)!
Overall, it has given Belgium a 32.6% chance of winning, closely followed by France with 29.8% while is England's chances of being crowned champions are 20.2%.
This is only the second time the model has changed its forecast all tournament and did so after its pre-competition favourites Brazil crashed out 2-1 against Belgium in the quarter-finals.
The simulation had previously expected Brazil to face Germany in the final on 15 July, however with Germany defeated in the group stages, this led the model to increase England's chances of making the final match.
The strategy takes into account 200,000 statistical models, data on individual players and team performance and ran one million simulations before making its judgement.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said: "With Brazil now out of the world cup, Belgium is at the top of our probability table with a 32.6% chance of lifting the trophy, closely followed by France (29.8%).
"Similarly, our model's modal projection is for Belgium to defeat France and England en route to winning the tournament."
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