RBS fears 'material' risk from Scottish independence

clock •

RBS could suffer a "material adverse effect" should Scots vote for independence in September this year, the Edinburgh-headquartered bank has warned.

In its clearest public position on the upcoming referendum yet, the banking giant highlighted the potential for uncertainty following a ‘Yes’ vote.

The RBS annual report stated: “The uncertainties resulting from an affirmative vote in favour of independence would be likely to significantly impact the group's credit ratings and could also impact the fiscal, monetary, legal and regulatory landscape to which the group is subject. Were Scotland to become independent, it may also affect Scotland's status in the EU.

“The occurrence of any of the impacts above could significantly impact the group's costs and would have a material adverse effect on the group's business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.”

The RBS announcement comes two months after Edinburgh-based Standard Life said it may move operations south in the event of a pro-independence vote. Other Scottish fund managers have said they are drawing up contingency plans.

The bailed-out bank has also become central to the independence debate in a broader economic context. This week, ratings agency Standard & Poor's suggested an independent government would struggle to support its banks in the event of another financial crisis.

Opposition to independence among Scottish voters is waning, according to a Scotland on Sunday poll this month. While the Yes vote remained steady at 39%, No voters declined from 46% in March to 42%.

More on Investment

L&G's Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg: The traditional inflation hedge is dead

L&G's Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg: The traditional inflation hedge is dead

Rethink required

Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg
clock 25 September 2026 • 3 min read
Partner Insight: The next chapter for ETFs in Europe

Partner Insight: The next chapter for ETFs in Europe

Europe’s ETF market has grown rapidly, but it remains significantly smaller than its US counterpart. That gap points to considerable long-term potential, particularly as a new generation of investors brings different expectations around access, technology and investment solutions.

State Street Investment Management
clock 23 September 2026 • 8 min read
Investment gap leaves European household wealth €1.17trn lighter since 2002

Investment gap leaves European household wealth €1.17trn lighter since 2002

ING research

Michael Nelson
clock 09 September 2026 • 2 min read
Trustpilot