US distributors to feel the pressure from Trump's trade tariffs with China

The campaign fury in the build-up to the US mid-term elections may have been a factor in 'Red October', which saw the S&P 500 take a 10% intra-month hit.

Markets like their politics lukewarm. The outcome probably suited, though. With the Democrats back in control of the House, a reversal of this year's tax reforms is unlikely, so is a major fiscal stimulus - a mild positive for bond markets. Since 1928, stocks have delivered an annual return of 12% when a Republican President has held office and Congress has been split, while they have returned an average of 20% in the following year. With the political heat dissipated, we can focus on what is really driving the economy: interest rates and trade wars. Markets are assuming four more rat...