Close election will create uncertainty

US overview

Markets have gone up in 18 of the 26 election years since 1900 and look set to conform to this pattern again this year. However, a closer than expected contest is likely to create uncertainty for investors

Only 12 months ago the stock markets were in the doldrums with people wondering how much longer the bear market, then in its third year, would continue. Little did we know that the turnaround was about to begin and we have since witnessed dramatic rallies in stock markets around the world. The S&P 500 has risen by nearly 30% in dollar terms over the past year and the US saw annualised growth of over 3.1% with this year"s growth estimate around 4.5%. But is this sustainable? This is a big year in the US with voters going to the polls for the presidential election in November. The campaign ...