Where does fund management sit on the spectrum of luck and skill?

clock • 3 min read

In his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing, Michael Mauboussin, head of global financial strategies at Credit Suisse, outlined an intuitive method for judging whether the outcome of a particular activity is driven by luck or skill.

Quite simply, one should ask whether it is possible to lose deliberately. If the answer is affirmative, then skill must be the predominant feature, if negative, then the endeavour is more reliant on luck. The effectiveness of this approach can be highlighted by two examples at opposite ends of the luck and skill spectrum. Chess is a game dominated by skill, with only a minimal influence from chance or randomness; it is easy to intentionally lose a game by recklessly sacrificing key pieces. Contrastingly, it is impossible to purposely fail when playing the lottery; provided the ticket...

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