Economy lifts off runway but not out of woods yet

ON THE US

clock

Americans have lost some of their optimism and boldness about the future and their financial security. But they have not stopped spending. Retail sales and car purchases are stronger than at this time a year ago.

Soft data (surveys and confidence polls) are down, but hard data indicate the business cycle is not ending, as industrial production, capacity utilisation, exports, and inflation all point modestly upward. At the same time, yields on AAA- and AA-rated bonds are near record lows, an indication of fear and distress in the system. Credit markets are functioning, but credit spreads are showing the risks of default have risen. The stock market has moved sharply down over the summer but has not fallen as much as is typically seen at the outset of a recession. Companies continue to reduce de...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on US

Friday Briefing: Not quite the week we were all expecting

Friday Briefing: Not quite the week we were all expecting

Friday Briefing

Eve Maddock-Jones
clock 14 July 2025 • 3 min read
BCA Research's Matt Gertken: Weighing up Trump's tariff threats
US

BCA Research's Matt Gertken: Weighing up Trump's tariff threats

Markets pricing in good news

Matt Gertken
clock 14 July 2025 • 4 min read
Trump confirms copper tariffs and punishes Brazil with 50% levies
US

Trump confirms copper tariffs and punishes Brazil with 50% levies

Latest escalation in global trade war

Sorin Dojan
clock 10 July 2025 • 2 min read
Trustpilot