Low growth and deflation are not certainties
It is a nightmare writing an investment piece about the UK.
Make any comment about Brexit and it can be out of date before you have finished typing the sentence, let alone seen it published.
But put Brexit to one side (no easy feat) and some truths about the UK are evident. One is that the political mood has radically changed.
The electorate were in self-flagellatory mood after their noughties consumption binge and the ensuing financial crisis.
"Give us austerity - we deserve it" was a message that got politicians elected. And austerity - a deflationary force - was what we got.
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Ten years later, austerity is a vote loser, and politicians know it. We now have the main parties outbidding each other on public spending, including the minimum wage.
This is clearly inflationary, and the outcome of Brexit is unlikely to change that, only its size and timing.
The big narrative of the last decade has been 'low-growth environment'. Assets that suit that have done well.
That narrative has become so ingrained that many investors act like it is permanent. So they hold the assets to match it and little else.
But what, if like every other economic phase in the history of everything ever, it is not permanent, just a swing of the pendulum?
Could fiscal stimulus, particularly if it reaches those with a greater propensity to consume, lead to a higher-growth, higher-inflation environment?
And could that lift all boats, not just a few? It is not crazy to consider the possibility, or to reflect that in part of your portfolio.
It is crazy, however, to invest as if low growth and deflation are 100% certainties. They are not.
Simon Evan-Cook is a senior investment manager at Premier Multi-Asset Funds
Bull Points
• A growing political shift towards fiscal stimulus may alleviate some of the deflationary conditions of the last decade
• Out-of-favour, short-duration assets - such as UK 'value' equities - offer some protection against a change in the economic environment
Bear Points
• Should fiscal stimulus lead to higher growth and inflation, the real value of cash may continue to be eroded.
• A return to even 'normal' economic growth and inflation would be bad news for gilts
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