Trade war: What will bring an end to retaliatory tariffs?

clock • 2 min read
Trevor Gurwich of American Century Investment
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Trevor Gurwich of American Century Investment

In the first half of 2019, the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and US-China trade negotiations affected the outlook for all asset classes including global small-cap stocks.

The Fed has changed its interest rate outlook. Last year we were on an upward sloping trajectory, and now that has reversed completely. Markets now are expecting two or three rate cuts in 2019, and we believe that will be very supportive for stocks in our universe.  The trade dispute between China and the US is extremely complex. Expectations on each side are very different, and tactics in use may or may not be what they seem. We think there is a 20% to 25% probability for some type of resolution in the next 12 months and 70% to 75% probability that something happens, but not until...

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