Trump's tariff threats could backfire on US citizens
Market signals pose 'dilemma' for investors
Knee-jerk reactions could become self-fulfilling
Which asset classes will benefit?
We are seeing a new bout of deterioration in fundamentals, with earnings revisions worsening and PMIs back on a declining path across emerging markets (EM).
Part of the June equity market rally was driven by growing investor expectation of a July rate cut in the US, which we believe is overdone.
A bull market in US equities that has run for more than a decade, and generally low volatility over the years, may give investors the impression the ride will never end.