fund manager views

As far as markets go, the outcome of the EU referendum has the potential to be far more seismic than polls before them, and one that could see stocks rallying or reeling.

Problems caused by China and central banks

Just over a month ago, volatility, as measured by the VIX index was around 26%, the highest reading since the Chinese slowdown scare of last August. The FTSE 100 was plunging, reaching its nadir of 5,500 in the morning of 11 February.

Compounding the gloomy outlook among investors is the ratcheting up of event risk. Brexit is looming largest, driving down sterling and threatening a period of sustained instability.

Company attitudes developing

Running a two-speed economy

Country selection is key

When was the last time you woke up in the middle of the night worried you had not bought enough baked beans? Or the last time you saw Unilever on the front page of a tabloid? Probably never.

Collapsing oil prices, falling equities, over exposure to energy and global stagnation have been the narrative for high yield market bears, writes Kames Capital's Adrian Hull.

Last September, we estimated the chances of a US recession occurring in 2016 as one in three. This prediction was less bold than it sounds since recessions have occurred, on average, about once every five years in US history.