BCA Research's Matt Gertken: Weighing up Trump's tariff threats

Markets pricing in good news

clock • 4 min read

US President Donald Trump is pivoting toward trade deals and ceasefires – both market-friendly policies – but that does not mean US and global stocks will continue to roar in the second half of the year.

The reason is tariff implementation. At best, Trump has one more chance over the next few months to slap tariffs on countries and win concessions in new trade deals. Global IPOs expected to 'remain quiet' amid market volatility triggered by Trump's tariffs After that, he will need to shift gears and minimise economic risks ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. The market will try to see through the threats and toward the positive result. His weak 40% approval rating on both the economy and foreign policy – lower than his general approval, which is holding up at around 47% –...

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