EFG AM's Joaquin Thul: UK economic outlook in a changing policy environment

Outcome of general election is significant

The Labour Party looks likely to win the next UK general election. The latest polls show a 20 percentage points lead in favour of Labour for an election which is still to be called, and must be held no later than 28 January 2025

A change in the political backdrop, an improved macroeconomic outlook and attractive valuations should support an upgrade in our views of the UK market. Different political environment The effects of the global pandemic, the aftermath of the Brexit deal and negative shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war on energy prices has led to an underperformance of the UK economy. GDP growth slowed from 1.6% year-on-year in 2019 to 0.1% YoY in 2023. BoE's Ben Broadbent: Summer rate cut on horizon if economic data follow forecasts Annual inflation peaked at 11% in November 2022 after a series...