Time to buy emerging markets?

'Opposite ends of cycle'

clock • 4 min read

If you look back at the 35 years up until the end of 2022, the Emerging Markets MSCI index outperformed the equivalent indices for Japan, Europe and World.

The only region to outperform was the US, which also delivered superior annualised returns with lower volatility. Go back to the end of 2012 and look at the prior 25 years of performance and things look rather different. Emerging markets outperformed the US and all the other indices mentioned above, albeit with higher volatility. So, what changed in the intervening ten years? A couple of factors were likely at play. One was that US and emerging market valuations were close to being aligned on a forward price-to-earnings basis in 2012. The dollar had experienced a roughly decade-long p...

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