Positioning ideas for an increasingly polarised world

Five key themes

After more than a decade of relatively benign markets – which benefited from low inflation, supportive central banks and moderate economic growth – conditions have changed over the past 12 to 18 months.

A new regime has come to pass, and we expect more changes as this matures over the course of the year. Inflation is likely to linger at higher levels but recede over time. This above‑target inflation means that many central banks may well have to keep interest rates elevated for a prolonged time. However, while a pivot to monetary easing may be elusive, this tightening cycle is nearing its peak. The global economy is likely to continue to slow down. It is yet unclear whether major economies will slip into recession or manage to avoid it. Recession 'absolutely necessary' to get inflati...