Do not get caught up in bond market recency bias

Impossible to predict

Generally speaking, I am not a fan of the word “unprecedented”.

First of all, most things are very much precedented. Secondly, when events are genuinely unprecedented the word can often be used by the industry as shorthand for poor investment performance. Unforeseen events happen more frequently than most of us would hope, and it is our job to build a portfolio to weather the vast majority of circumstances. Which brings us neatly to the bond market. ICE Bank of America Gilt index   UK government bonds are down by 21% year to date, by far the worst calendar year performance since the relevant index was created in 1986. Going back furt...