Recession or not growth is slowing

Shallow recession as inflation peaks

When GDP numbers were released for the second quarter, they confirmed what we have known for some time. Economic growth is slowing.

Much of the focus has been on the semantics of whether we are in a recession or not, but that is not our primary focus. Regardless of the label, it is clear growth is decelerating, although it is against a backdrop of jobs numbers that remain resilient. Most recently, consumer and corporate spending, which have to date been viewed as economic strengths, have slowed too. Real incomes are also falling as pandemic stimulus wears off. These are significant shifts. We have arrived at a pivot point. Markets rapidly moved from wondering if and how the US Federal Reserve will respond to rein ...